Archive for January, 2007

Semoga menjadi anak sholehah..Safira..!

Wednesday, January 31st, 2007

Hari ini aku menjenguk teman baikku yang baru saja melahirkan. Dia dengan penuh semangat dan kegembiraan bercerita betapa berat dan sakit perjuangannya melahirkan anak bayi mungil cantik bernama SAFIRA GHYSENS. Itulah kasih sayang seorang ibu kepada anak, mereka para ibu tidak pernah marah, kesal kepada anaknya dikarenakan penderitaan antara hidup mati sewaktu melahirkan. Maka pantaslah jika Allah menjadikan siapa saja yg meninggal disaat melahirkan menjadi syuhada…

Ya Allah sayangilah Ibu kami, ayah kami, sebagaimana mereka merawat, menyayangi kami mulai sebelum kami lahir hingga saat ini…..Jadikanlah mereka penghuni syurgaMu, dan kumpulkanlah kami dengan mereka di akhirat nanti.

Untuk keluarga Gysens, selamat berjuang menyayang, mendidik dan menjadi tauladan bagi Safira . Semoga Safira menjadi anak yang sholehah,,amiin…

OM TIO

Mixture distribution mixes my mind….

Tuesday, January 30th, 2007

Cocktail
I thought that working on many sophisticated formula already finished last trimester….
But I was totally wrong…it getting worse….
This trimester I have to face Advance Modeling techniques (AMT). Just like its name, in this course we are dealing with special, advance problem which not come in generic statistics situation.in simple statistics, we usually want to know weather two population are the same, or if we know that they are different we wish to know how to distinct/differentiate them.
If the situation is on the way around, we have a set of data, and we want to know from how many population is the set of data, and from which distribution they are..you must know AMT.
The basic of this course is mixture distribution. In simple statistics we assume that data comes a single normal distribution. So we can make inference from the statistics (value that we have from dataset, eg. mean sample). Practically, the distribution of the data is not always normal, even we can use Central Limit theorem
to approximate the distribution using normal distribution.
But if the case that the distribution have two modes (bimodal) it seems that the distribution is a mixture of two distribution, eg. mix of two normal dists and jointly make that shape…

I will explain in common words, We are served a glass of cocktail and want to know the ingredients of it, how much sugar, how many percentage of milk in it and more difficult is how many ingredients on it, what are they and their percentage..
In our case we deal with data. How many distribution are involve on the data set , what are they and how much their participation….

Confusing right? actually the general idea is not confusing, the problem for me is the mathematical background behind it is a major problem..
wish me luck friends to cope this course……

 

My Refrigerator

Monday, January 29th, 2007

Last few days I was wondered why my refrigerator doesn’t as
cold as usual. I thought I am in trouble coz if it is kapot (broken), the land
lord will charge me….

Then I realized that it is bcoz the temperature outside my refrigerator is colder than inside…..ehmm, it won’t be happen in jakarta …

Bootstrap

Sunday, January 28th, 2007

Bootstrap

 Bootstrapping is a
statistical method for estimating the sampling distribution of an estimator
by sampling with replacement from the original sample, most often with the
purpose of deriving robust estimates of standard errors and confidence
intervals of a population parameter like a mean, median, proportion, odds ratio,
correlation coefficient or regression
coefficient. It may also be used for constructing hypothesis tests. It is often
used as a robust alternative to inference based on parametric assumptions when
those assumptions are in doubt, or where parametric inference is impossible or
requires very complicated formulas for the calculation of standard errors.

The Bootstrap method is a
technique for making inferences about a population’s characteristics. It is a
computer intensive statistical method that uses simulation to estimate standard
errors, construct confidence intervals and carryout significance testing based
not on assumptions of normality but on empirical resampling with replacement of
the data. Taking a large number of random samples from the dataset generates
information on the variability of parameter estimates, and the larger the
sample, the more the precision of bootstrapped error estimates.

 

Efron invented the name”boostrap”
from and old saying about “pulling yourself up by your owb bootstrap” . it
reflects the idea that one available sample give rise to many others.

 

Non parametric Bootstrap

This method relies on the
fact that the empirical distribution function based on the sample is an
estimate of the distribution of the population; in this wise, it is very imperative
that this sample should be a true representative of the population. It resample
randomly with replacement from the original data.

 

Parametric Bootstrap

The parametric bootstrap is
based on parametric assumptions. We assume that the response variable has a
specific distribution.

 

Semi Parametric Bootstrap

The semi parametric method is
based on the bootstrap the residuals, also called residual bootstrap. The main
idea is to resample from an empirical version of the error distribution.

Jackknife

Sunday, January 28th, 2007

Jackknife_1

Jackknife is a classical
technique in estimating theory which has two major purposes:
Reducing the bias of a given estimator and Reducing of confidence intervals

Tukey who invented it and
named in jackknife has idea that this technique could serve as and puropose
tool for constructing an all purpose statistical tool for constructing
confidence intervals. Just like a boy scout uses his jackknife as a versatile
tool in a wide variety of situation.

Jackknife statistics are
created by systematically dropping out subsets of data one at a time and
assessing the resulting variation in the studied parameter.

2nd day Aisya’s School Day

Sunday, January 28th, 2007

1st day worked well with 1 hour crying….and we wondered wht will happen at 2nd day…
Aisya was worried to face the 2nd day at school, we knew it coz at night she was not sleep well, maybe she knew that I will left her again. But when we asked her whether she will cry or not,She replied quickly by saying NO..I WON’T..ok…let see I thought….

I arrived and just like 1st day she started crying and hold my hand so tight…
but I know that she have to learn to live with others….

That day I got good news, aisya only cried 5 mins and then she became normal…
It was much better that what we expected….!!!

Aisya’s 1st day at school…..

Sunday, January 28th, 2007

Aisya supposed to start the class at 7th jan, but coz we just came from hamburg and she was tired, she went on 9th jan. During preparation period, aisya just stay close to my wive, it made us think that she would cry at the 1st day..so I brought her to the school instead of my wive. She knew that she won’t be able to leave her crying.
Aisya’s class starts at 8.45 finish 15.20. I planned to take the bus at 8.35, it takes  around 10 mins by bus. but coz takes time to dress up aisya, we missed the bus..then I took my bike and headed to the school. it takes 15 mins and along that aisya repeatedly said that she won’t cry and brave to go to class alone..
I know that she was nerveous..me too, cos this is my 1st time bringing my douhter to the class and also i knew that i will leave her in crying..
When we arrived and I put off the jackets she started to cry very hard…just like wht we thought….
the teacher Alexia said it is ok and normal..most of other students did that also..so I left her, but I just stayed around and see maybe she wont finish crying.
The school principal told me that better for me to go home, they will handle everything..then I went home with little cry in my heart….
Coz it was the 1st class she just went at school half day and I picked her up at 12.20. When I arrived she looked very happy..of course me too…
I asked the teacher, she said she was crying 1hour after that she became normal and started playing..ehm…our plan worked well…
So we went home by saying TOT MORGEN "see u tommorow? to others………….

Main FILM? siapa takut..

Sunday, January 28th, 2007

Akhirnya terwujud juga impian jadi bintang film …he2…
bersama sama temen di Indonesian Independent Community http://aifk.multiply.com/  kita buat beberapa film pendek….
salah satunya Whisper dimana aku jadi peran utamanya …
grogi juga ternyata harus menghapal beberapa dialog dan harus menjiwai peran itu..
Ternyata jadi aktor itu tidak semudah yg ku kira…he2…
tapi paling tidak aku sudah pernah mencoba untuk menjadi aktor seperti Rano Karno he2…..

Poligami dimata bule…(diceritakan oleh istriku)

Saturday, January 27th, 2007

Alhamdulillah
aku lulus bahasa belanda level satu, skrg dah level 2, padahal aku baru ikut
satu bulan, ketinggalan 3bulan, tp alhamdulillah bs ngikutin, cm kalo iujian
sprekennya (speaking) dan listeningnya yang nilainya ngepas he hehe, kalo
tulis…bagus.
Semalam seru….aku ditanya gurunya ttg Poligamy, bingung deh aku
jawabnya….heran jg dia kok tau poligami yah….aku bingung karena harus
menerangkan dlm b.belanda…..jadinya kurang pas deh. Aku bilang memang
dibolehkan dalam islam tapi dgn syarat2 tertentu, dan suami mempunyai kemampuan
utk adil, tp pas aku cb bilang mampu, mereka mngartikannya hanya dlm bentuk
materi (uang), nah lo bingung lg neranginnya…., trus aku bilang, harus
seiijin istri pertama, dan bila tdk mampu satu istri lebih dekat dgn
keadilan…tapi tau deh mereka ngerti apa tidak, aku neranginnya nano2 pake
b.belanda dan inggris…belepotan deh…..
orang2 belgi disini lebih memilih samen liven dari pada nikah…karena g ribet…
kl nikah kan butuh banyak surat menyurat dan nanti kalo cerai repot..so mereka milih hidup bersama kalo bosen bisa seenaknya ganti…Nauzubillah min zalik….
perlu diketahui juga, Belgia adalah negara yg membolehkan nikah sesama jenis selain Belanda dan Canada…
tapi lucunya mereka memandang miring poligami YG JELAS2 LEGAL..weleh2…
Dan memang tingkat perceraian disini cukup tinggi…dan mereka juga males untuk memiliki anak…
in few years they will extinc…?

KAKA DOEN…!!!!

Saturday, January 27th, 2007

KAKA doen..is the first sentence that Aisya should know before coming to the school….
in bahasa indonesia it means MO EE’, in english it means  "go to rest room/toile/wc’..
Before entering the school all children must already know how to get pee so the teacher only bring them to toilet and the rest they have to do my them self…
in the beginning we also have to train Aisya using toilet seat..coz it different with ours in indonesia…heheheee…